How Select Consumer Staples Stocks Quietly Crushed the Market in 2025
- Hardik Shah
- Dec 16, 2025
- 4 min read
Execution—not exposure—drove elite alpha in a year of muted sector returns
In 2025, market attention revolved almost entirely around artificial intelligence and semiconductors. That focus obscured one of the year’s most compelling investing stories unfolding in plain sight.
The Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (XLP) was essentially flat year-to-date, weighed down by skepticism around consumer demand, pricing power, and margin durability. Meanwhile, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)—the market’s favored AI proxy—returned roughly 44% YTD, setting an unusually high bar for performance.
And yet, a select group of consumer staples companies didn’t just beat the S&P 500—they matched or exceeded semiconductor-level returns, in some cases by a wide margin.
This was not momentum or narrative-driven multiple expansion. It was execution—showing up in margins, cash flow, balance sheets, and operating discipline—finally rewarded in a market that rarely extends consumer stocks the benefit of the doubt.
Herbalife (HLF) +116.32% YTD
A credibility reset turns into extreme alpha - Shares more than doubled, rising from $6.68 at the start of the year to $14.45 by December 16.
Herbalife delivered the most dramatic equity performance in this group, and the driver was not speculative optimism—it was measurable operational progress after a multi-year reset.
In its latest quarter, Herbalife returned to net sales growth both globally and in North America, a milestone not seen since before the post-pandemic downturn. Adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance, leverage fell to 2.8x, and the company fully repaid its 2025 notes, removing a key overhang on the capital structure .
Management framed the quarter as an inflection point rather than a one-off:
“Herbalife’s third-quarter performance reflects continued progress in our transformation strategy, as well as disciplined financial and operational execution.”— Stephan Gratziani, Chief Executive Officer
→ Once stabilization became visible, HLF was repriced aggressively.
Dollar General (DG) — +77.85% YTD
Back to basics beats reinvention - The stock rebounded sharply, climbing from $75.63 in early January to $134.51 by December 16.
Dollar General’s rebound was rooted in a deliberate operational reset. After years of pressure from shrink, labor inefficiencies, and inventory missteps, 2025 marked a return to executional discipline.
The company tightened labor models, refocused on consumables that drive frequent traffic, and moderated store growth to protect returns on invested capital. In a value-constrained consumer environment, DG’s rural proximity advantage reasserted itself.
As CEO Todd Vasos put it earlier this year, “We are focused on improving execution, enhancing the customer experience, and strengthening our operational foundation.”
→ The market rewarded DG's consistency—not complexity.
Dollar Tree (DLTR) — +71.51% YTD
Fix the portfolio, then earn the multiple - Shares jumped from $76.47 at the start of the year to $131.15 by December 16.
Dollar Tree’s outperformance stemmed from clarity where there had long been confusion.
The company accelerated its Family Dollar reset, closing underperforming locations, rationalizing assortments, and leaning into a multi-price strategy that improved margins without alienating value-focused shoppers. Shrink and cost controls improved visibly across the system.
“We are excited about this new chapter in Dollar Tree’s history. We are enhancing our value and customer focus as a multi-price, technology-enabled retailer that can compete and win in today’s market.” — Michael Creedon, CEO
→ Once execution stabilized, DLTR valuation followed.
Celsius Holdings (CELH) — +58.64% YTD
Distribution converts brand heat into earnings power - The stock surged from $27.20 in early January to $43.15 by December 16.
Celsius continued to demonstrate how quickly a differentiated brand can scale when paired with world-class distribution.
Expanded shelf space, improved cooler placement, and PepsiCo’s logistics muscle drove velocity gains, while operating leverage amplified earnings growth. Importantly, Celsius sustained momentum without sacrificing brand integrity.
CEO John Fieldly noted, “We continue to see strong consumer demand supported by expanded distribution and increased shelf space across key channels.”
→ CELH didn’t just grow—it institutionalized its growth.
Vita Coco (COCO) — +48.58% YTD
Category leadership pays off when volatility fades - Shares rose from $35.14 at the beginning of the year to $52.21 by December 16.
After navigating post-pandemic normalization, Vita Coco entered 2025 with a leaner cost structure and a firmer grip on category leadership.
Freight normalization and disciplined promotions drove margin recovery, while innovation remained tightly aligned with the core coconut water franchise. The result was improved free cash flow and renewed investor confidence.
Co-CEO Michael Kirban emphasized the focus: “We’re focused on profitable growth and maintaining our leadership position as the category continues to normalize.”
→ Stability, not reinvention, powered Vita Coco.
Monster Beverage (MNST) — +44.03% YTD
Global scale quietly compounds - The stock advanced from $52.31 in early January to $75.34 by mid-December.
International markets delivered sustained growth, while easing input and freight costs unlocked operating leverage. Monster avoided SKU sprawl, preserved brand discipline, and let scale do the work.
CFO Thomas Kelly observed, “We continue to see benefits from lower input costs and strong operating leverage as our global volumes scale.”
→ Monster remains a masterclass in letting fundamentals compound.
Casey’s General Stores (CASY) — +40.08% YTD
Foodservice execution drives durable compounding - Shares climbed from $394.65 at the start of the year to $552.82 by December 16.
Casey’s was the lone name in this group to trail SMH modestly, but its performance was arguably just as impressive given the business it operates.
Prepared food continued to drive traffic and margin expansion, acquisitions were integrated efficiently, and pricing discipline translated into consistent free cash flow. Few retailers executed with comparable precision.
CEO Darren Rebelez highlighted the core engine: “Our prepared food business continues to be a key differentiator, driving strong inside sales growth and margin expansion across the store base.”
→ Casey’s made compounding look ordinary—by executing extraordinarily well.
Alpha Lives in the Exceptions
Beating the S&P 500 is hard. Matching—or surpassing—SMH’s +44% YTD is rarer still.
But the more revealing comparison isn’t tech. It’s that XLP went essentially nowhere in 2025—and yet these stocks produced some of the strongest alpha anywhere in the market.
Sector averages concealed what mattered. Behind a stagnant ETF, a small group of operators executed relentlessly—expanding margins, strengthening balance sheets, and allocating capital with discipline. For investors willing to look past the index, fundamentals—not exposure—drove outsized returns.
In a year dominated by thematic trades, 2025 reinforced a timeless investing truth: alpha is not found in the average—it lives in the exceptions.
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