How Chili’s Plans to Keep Growing After the Comeback
Chili’s has already delivered the turnaround. Revenue has increased 41% since fiscal 2023, average unit volumes have risen from $3.3 million to $5 million, and restaurant operating margin has expanded by 660 basis points.
At Brinker International’s September 17 investor day, management laid out how it intends to grow from that stronger base. The plan combines menu renovation, everyday value, improved restaurant execution, reimages and new-unit development. Each element supports the next: menu and marketing generate demand, operations convert trial into repeat visits, and stronger restaurant economics fund expansion.
Turn menu categories into growth platforms
Chili’s has renovated approximately 60% of its menu, leaving 40% still to address. The remaining pipeline includes salads, desserts, healthier high-protein meals, steaks and fajitas.
“We have a playbook that we have run now over and over again on about 60% of our menu,” Chief Marketing Officer George Felix told investors.
The playbook begins by improving the food, portion or range of choices within a category. Chili’s then decides how to commercialize it. A large category such as burgers may receive national advertising. Margaritas can be promoted through monthly flavors and cultural tie-ins. Other categories may rely more heavily on menu placement and in-restaurant merchandising.
Each category also has a defined economic role. Chicken sandwiches and the 3 For Me offer are intended to drive traffic. Steaks can raise the average check. The kids’ menu supports family visits. Margaritas contribute both traffic and check growth. Salads and healthier meals address occasions where the absence of an acceptable option could cause a group to choose another restaurant.
The Triple Dipper shows how the system can extend the life of a successful product. When social-media interest accelerated, Chili’s added Nashville Hot and Honey-Chipotle mozzarella flavors, used influencers to generate more content and incorporated the item into broader cultural campaigns. Triple Dipper sales increased from $224 million in fiscal 2023 to $864 million in fiscal 2026 and now represent 16% of Chili’s sales.
The result is more than one viral product. Chili’s has developed a process for identifying demand, improving the offering and sustaining attention after the initial spike.
Use price to acquire traffic without pricing the whole menu cheaply
Chili’s supports that menu strategy with an everyday-low-price structure. Its average per-person spend is approximately $3 to $4 below casual-dining competitors, and entry offers such as the $10.99 3 For Me give customers price certainty without requiring an app, coupon or limited promotional window.
That entry price does not determine the economics of the entire menu. Management disclosed that the $10.99 offer represents approximately 9% of checks and 6% of sales. Other customers select premium margaritas, steaks, ribs or upgraded menu items.
This is a barbell pricing model. The accessible entry point establishes Chili’s value credentials and gives price-sensitive customers a reason to visit. The breadth of the menu allows the brand to serve higher-spending occasions at the same time.
It also gives Chili’s room to compete with quick-service restaurants. The Better Than Fast Food campaign compares Chili’s portions, service and atmosphere with increasingly expensive fast-food meals. Chili’s is effectively narrowing the perceived price gap while emphasizing what customers receive for the additional time and money.
Convert trial into repeat visits
Marketing can fill the restaurant once. Sustainable growth requires customers to return.
Chili’s has been attracting roughly 3.3 million to 3.5 million new or reactivated customers per month, based on unique payment-card data. Despite the influx, average visit frequency has remained stable, suggesting that new customers are beginning to behave like existing ones rather than disappearing after a promotion.
Brinker has invested more than $180 million in restaurant labor and approximately $110 million in restaurant maintenance and atmosphere since fiscal 2023. Chili’s has also simplified the menu, reduced kitchen complexity and brought bussers back into the operating model. Its overall-experience ranking has improved from sixth to second within its competitive set.
The next set of changes targets specific sources of friction: faster seating, handheld ordering, improved kitchen-display systems, simpler check adjustments, frictionless payment and better to-go execution. Chili’s currently serves about 4,200 guests per restaurant each week. Management believes reaching 4,300 would add approximately 2% to same-store sales, while the system’s historical peak was about 5,200.
Higher traffic also carries attractive incremental economics. Restaurants generating more than $6 million in annual sales produce operating margins approximately 400 basis points above the system average. Only 20% of the estate currently exceeds that threshold.
“The main driver of our margin expansion has been AUVs,” CEO Kevin Hochman said.
Higher volume spreads occupancy, management and other restaurant costs across more sales, although Brinker will need to preserve service quality as restaurants become busier.
Refresh the estate and restart unit growth
Chili’s plans to reimage approximately 60 to 80 restaurants in fiscal 2027 and about 110 annually beginning in fiscal 2028. Early reimages have cost roughly $500,000 to $600,000 per location and produced sales lifts of 3% to 5% above the broader brand trend.
The reimages address a remaining weakness in the proposition. Food, value and service scores have improved faster than atmosphere and cleanliness, while 75% of Chili’s customers still eat inside the restaurant. A fresher dining room supports the value proposition and protects the relevance created through menu and marketing investments.
Brinker also plans to reach 30 new Chili’s openings annually by fiscal 2029. It has identified more than 300 potential trade areas and expects new restaurants to generate cash-on-cash returns of approximately 18% to 20%. New units should eventually add 2% to 3% to annual growth, supplementing same-store sales rather than carrying the growth plan on their own.
The proof will show up in several places. Menu innovation needs to keep traffic positive after the recent surge. Service improvements need to convert that demand into repeat visits and higher weekly guest counts without weakening the experience. If volumes continue to rise, restaurant margins should follow. Reimages and new restaurants must then earn returns that justify the increase in capital spending.
Chili’s has moved beyond repairing the brand. It now has to turn relevance, value, execution and disciplined reinvestment into a durable growth model. The leadership team has already shown that it can translate a clear strategy into strong operating results, which gives it considerable credibility as it pursues the growth plan laid out at investor day.
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