Post Holdings Earnings: Resilient in a Challenging Environment with FY2025 Outlook Raised
- Hardik Shah
- May 9
- 3 min read
TLDR
Avian Flu Recovery on Track: Q2 was impacted by $30M in avian influenza costs, but recovery is expected in H2 with pricing actions and flock repopulation.
Cereal & Pet Volumes Weak: Post Consumer Brands saw continued volume pressure; cereal down 6.3%, pet food down 5.4%.
FY2025 EBITDA Raised: Guidance increased to $1.43–$1.47B amid improving supply chain and recovery expectations.
Business Overview
Post Holdings (NYSE: POST) is a consumer packaged goods holding company with operations across ready-to-eat cereal, refrigerated retail, foodservice (primarily egg and potato products), and pet food. Key brands include Weetabix, Bob Evans, Peter Pan, and Michael Foods. Post also participates in private brands through 8th Avenue Food & Provisions.
Post Holdings Earnings - Q2'25 Highlights
Net Sales: $1.95B (↓2.3% YoY)
Adjusted EBITDA: $346.5M (↑0.4% YoY)
Net Income: $62.6M (↓35.6% YoY)
Diluted EPS: $1.03 vs $1.48 last year
Free Cash Flow: $70M in Q2, $240M YTD
Segment Results:
Post Consumer Brands: Sales ↓7.3% to $987.9M; volumes down across cereal and pet. Adjusted EBITDA ↑2.4% to $203.8M.
Foodservice: Sales ↑9.6% to $607.9M; driven by price increases and shake volumes. Adjusted EBITDA ↓5.6% due to cost timing from avian flu.
Refrigerated Retail: Sales ↓6.6% to $224.6M. Volume and EBITDA declines driven by holiday timing and egg supply issues.
Weetabix: Sales ↓4.6%; volumes fell 7.1%. Adjusted EBITDA ↑9% due to pricing and mix improvements.
Forward Guidance
Management raised FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.43B–$1.47B (from $1.42B–$1.46B). This assumes:
Full recovery of ~$30M Q2 avian flu costs in H2.
No further avian flu outbreaks.
Continued weakness in cereal volumes and Nutrish relaunch drag.
Operational Performance
Avian Influenza: Q2 foodservice EBITDA dropped ~$20M vs. Q1, due to $30M in unrecovered costs.
Cereal Category: Volume down 6.3%, category softness, and asset optimization led to additional plant closures.
Pet Segment: Facing volume and price elasticity challenges, but Nutrish relaunch is underway with early positive feedback.
Refrigerated Retail: Easter timing and limited egg availability impacted results. PPI acquisition provides future capacity upside.
Weetabix: Stabilizing post-ERP implementation. Yellow box performance was in-line with category.
Market Insights
Management flagged continued weak consumer sentiment, trade-down behaviors, and GLP-1-related category pressures (e.g., fewer breakfast occasions). Private label and premium offerings are diverging in performance—strong demand at the low and high ends, softness in the middle.
“Consumer sentiment is weak. We expect we will need to focus on demand drivers and flawless supply chain execution.” — CEO Rob Vitale
Strategic Initiatives
M&A: Tariff volatility has slowed deal activity. Focus is shifting to smaller, synergy-rich acquisitions like PPI.
Plant Closures: Two more cereal facilities to close by year-end, expected to save $20M annually.
Innovation Pipeline: Nutrish pet brand relaunch and Bob Evans renovation set to support volume in H2 and FY2026.
Marketing: Weetabix marketing ramp to support sequential volume recovery.
Capital Allocation
Share Repurchases: ~6% of shares repurchased YTD ($372.7M); 1.7M shares bought in Q2 at $110 avg. price.
M&A Spend: $124M for PPI acquisition.
Leverage: Slight increase to 4.5x net leverage due to timing of capital deployment.
CapEx Outlook: $390–$430M for FY2025, including cereal network optimization and cage-free egg expansion.
The Bottom Line
Post Holdings is navigating a tough environment with operational discipline and strategic capital deployment. Despite volume pressure in cereal and pet, the company is executing well in foodservice and poised for margin recovery in H2. The updated FY2025 guidance reflects confidence in pricing actions and supply chain execution—backed by a flexible balance sheet and renewed focus on cost control.
“We’ve now bought approximately 6% of the company since the beginning of the fiscal year.” — Jeff Zadoks, COO
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